3 Simple Ways To Reduce Risk Curve-fitting

Curve-fitting is almost certain death for a trading or investment strategy. So, what is Curve-fitting? Well, you know when you test a trading or investment hypothesis, fall in love with the historical results, and then the idea fails to generate similar (or even positive) returns once you decide to trade it live? Most of the pitfalls of system trading and trading, in general, can be avoided or mitigated following these three simple techniques or rules of thumb. 1. Use out of sample data! Out of sample data is simply withholding some of the data in your “test” period for further evaluation. For example, you have ten years of historical data and opt to put the last 30% in your back pocket. You develop a great trading strategy on the first seven years of the data set and then whip out your “out of sample” data (remaining 30% from your back pocket) and validate your findings. If the strategy fails to produce similar results in the out of sample data then you can be almost ce...