What Does 2019’s Hot Start Mean for Stocks This Year?
The S&P 500 index has gotten off to a hot start in 2019, so I decided to dive in and see just how hot the stock market has been on a historical basis. And what it may mean. On a closing basis, I calculated the rolling drawdown (peak to trough) and the return for each year through the first week in April starting since 1960. BuildAlpha : Using a profit to drawdown ratio of those two values, 2019 ranks as the fourth-best year since 1960. Here is a quick list of the top years and conversely a snapshot of the bottom years 1995 +8.19 1964 +7.71 1961 +6.77 2019 +6.15 1967 +5.08 1977 – (0.95) 1992 – (0.87) 1973 – (0.84) 1962 – (0.69) 1974 – (0.63) Of course, we cannot capture the bullish strength through the first week of April at this point. So how did the top years do from April onward? Across the top of the chart you can see the year, the percentage return from the first week of April until year-end, the peak to trough drawdown from the first week of...